Workshop on PROBABILISTIC EXPERT SYSTEMS FOR FORENSIC GENETICS

Workshop on PROBABILISTIC EXPERT SYSTEMS FOR FORENSIC GENETICS – 23 – 26 Ottobre 2012 –

A very successful informal workshop on Probabilistic Expert Systems for Forensic Genetics took place from Tuesday 23 October (7pm) to Friday 26 October (2pm) in the magnificent setting of Villino Volterra. Participants were:
• Robert G. Cowell, Cass Business School, City University, London, UK
• Philip Dawid, Statistical Laboratory, University of Cambridge, UK
• Therese Graversen, Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, UK
• Ate D. Kloosterman Faculty of Science, University of Amsterdam, the Netherlands
• Steffen L. Lauritzen, Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, UK
•  Julia Mortera, Università Roma Tre, Italy
• Marjan  Sjerps, Faculty of Science, University of Amsterdam and Netherlands Forensic Institute
• Klaas Slooten Department Human Biological Traces, Netherlands Forensic Institute, Amsterdam

Probabilistic Expert Systems with inferences computed by probability propagation methods offer an appealing practical modelling framework for structured systems involving discrete variables in numerous domains, including forensic genetics. Forensic science is experiencing a period of rapid change because of the tremendous evolution in DNA profiling. DNA evidence has transformed the proof of identity in criminal litigation, but it has also introduced daunting problems of statistical analysis into the process. Problems of forensic identification from DNA evidence can become extremely challenging, both logically and computationally, in the presence of complicating features such as missing data on individuals, mixed DNA trace evidence, heterogeneous populations, mutation etc. The aim of the informal workshop was to tackle some complex problems on forensic identification from DNA mixtures.